April 15, 2026 Royal Bank of Canada says Canada experienced a net capital outflow of $1 trillion between 2015 and 2024, marking what it calls the most significant capital exodus in the country’s modern history. The imbalance came as Canada ranked last in the G7 for capital investment, with spending on machinery, equipment and intellectual property at roughly half the level of the United States.
The findings come from RBC Thought Leadership, where managing director Jordan Brennan said the scale and timing of the outflows stood out. “The imbalance was what was striking,” he said, noting that capital was leaving the country “at scale” while domestic investment remained constrained.
The report makes clear that outbound investment itself is not inherently negative. Canadian capital flowing abroad can generate returns and diversify portfolios. The issue, according to RBC, is that this trend coincided with a period when Canada’s own economy required more investment to drive productivity and growth.
There are early signs of reversal. Foreign direct investment into Canada reached nearly $100 billion last year, the highest level since 2015 and the first time in a decade that inflows exceeded outflows. RBC said the shift reflects renewed global interest, with investors reassessing portfolios amid broader economic uncertainty.
To sustain that momentum, the report outlines an aggressive investment agenda. Canada would need approximately $1.8 trillion over the next decade across six sectors: oil and gas, metals and minerals, electricity, agriculture, defence, and space. In energy alone, RBC estimates $705 billion in investment could position the country as a major global supplier through expanded pipelines, LNG infrastructure, and carbon capture systems.
Infrastructure pressure is already building. The report notes that electrification across transport, buildings, industry, and data centres could double electricity demand by 2050, requiring large-scale upgrades to a grid largely built more than 50 years ago.
Despite the scale of the challenge, RBC argues the issue is not a lack of capital. “The country is awash in savings,” Brennan said, pointing to trillions of dollars held in large pension funds. The constraint lies in how that capital is deployed. Large investors typically require projects of sufficient size and certainty, and Canada currently has too few that meet those thresholds.
This creates a structural mismatch. While capital exists, many mid-sized companies lack access to the scale of funding needed to expand, and large institutional investors struggle to find projects that justify deployment. RBC suggests that bridging this gap will be critical to improving productivity and reversing the investment shortfall.
Competition for capital is also intensifying globally, with multiple countries pursuing similar infrastructure and industrial strategies. RBC said Canada will need to move quickly to convert renewed investor interest into sustained investment activity.
Brennan described the past decade as a missed opportunity but expressed cautious optimism about the path forward. “We have missed the last 10 years,” he said. “We missed that wave of investment and so it’s really on us now to change the playbook.”
