February 24, 2026 Big Tech is preparing to pour roughly $700 billion into artificial intelligence infrastructure this year, expanding an already massive wave of spending on data centres and advanced computing systems. That surge has helped fuel a popular narrative that AI is becoming a major engine of U.S. economic growth. But some economists now say the reality may be far less dramatic.

The investment push spans companies including Meta, Amazon, Google and OpenAI, all racing to build the infrastructure needed to train and run increasingly complex models. The scale of spending has been so large that political leaders have pointed to it as evidence of economic strength. 

Early economic analyses appeared to support that optimism. Some economists estimated that spending tied to software and information-processing equipment accounted for an outsized share of GDP growth in parts of 2025, reinforcing the idea that AI was already reshaping the macroeconomic picture.

But that conclusion is now being challenged. Goldman Sachs economists say the economic lift from AI investment has likely been overstated, with chief economist Jan Hatzius arguing the sector contributed little to overall U.S. growth last year. The firm points to a structural issue: much of the hardware powering the AI boom is manufactured overseas, meaning a portion of the economic value shows up in foreign GDP instead of domestic output.

There is also a measurement problem. While capital spending on AI infrastructure is visible, economists say there is still no reliable way to track how AI adoption translates into productivity gains across the broader economy. The lack of clear metrics has made it difficult to separate hype from measurable impact.

Corporate data paints a similarly mixed picture. Surveys of business leaders suggest widespread experimentation with AI tools, but limited real-world transformation so far. In one large international poll of executives, most companies reported deploying AI, yet a majority said it had not significantly affected productivity or employment.

The disconnect underscores a growing tension in the AI narrative. On one hand, record investment and rapid technological advances are driving excitement across markets and policymaking circles. On the other, economists and analysts are increasingly questioning whether the current spending wave is delivering meaningful economic returns – at least in the near term.

With hundreds of billions still slated to flow into AI infrastructure, the debate is likely to intensify.