April 23, 2024 In an unexpected shift, Apple has drastically reduced its shipment forecasts for the upcoming Vision Pro, indicating a lukewarm reception to its latest technology offering. Initially set to distribute between 700,000 and 800,000 units in 2024, the tech giant has now adjusted those numbers down to just 400,000 to 450,000 units. This adjustment comes even before the Vision Pro’s launch in markets outside the United States, suggesting a significant drop in U.S. consumer interest.
Renowned Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo interprets this move as Apple taking a “conservative view” on future demand as it prepares to introduce the product in additional countries. The timing is critical, with expansions planned just before the June Worldwide Developers Conference. This suggests that international consumers could get their hands on the Vision Pro within the next month.
Despite these plans, Apple anticipates further declines in Vision Pro shipments for 2025, signaling potential long-term challenges in the headset market. According to Kuo, Apple is reevaluating its headset strategy, potentially scrapping plans for a new model in 2025, contrary to earlier speculations of a revised Vision Pro entering mass production late next year.
In efforts to manage these hurdles, Apple has been focusing on enhancing production efficiencies and supply chain management, though without altering the product’s core specifications or user experience. Kuo forecasts no significant updates to the Vision Pro until possibly 2027.
The analyst has also highlighted critical areas needing improvement for the Vision Pro to gain market traction, including the expansion of key applications, pricing adjustments, and enhancements in comfort— all without compromising the overall user experience. The sluggish sales outlook for the Vision Pro is likely to affect related industries as well, particularly impacting the growth of pancake lenses and the adoption of microOLED display technologies in smaller consumer electronics.
