Adi Shamir, a renowned cryptographer, feels that fears about quantum computers cracking encryption techniques are exaggerated.

Shamir stated during the annual cryptographers’ panel at the RSA Conference in San Francisco that while AI and cryptography have delivered on their promises, quantum computing has yet to demonstrate its potential and may not do so for decades.

Shamir discovered that the great majority of encrypted messages, around 99%, are mundane and unimportant to decipher, such as informal talks or meetings. As a result, these sorts of signals are not a significant target for quantum computers to interpret, and the difficulties of distinguishing between vital and irrelevant information would impede the discovery of true secrets.

Architect Anne Dames of IBM, on the other hand, warned that while quantum computers do not yet exist, they may appear over the next 30-40 years. To maintain security, it is important to switch to quantum-resistant encryption techniques.

The sources for this piece include an article in TheRegister.