March 23, 2026 A trader earned nearly $1 million on Polymarket by correctly predicting US and Israeli military actions against Iran, according to blockchain analysis shared with CNN. The trades, which included bets placed hours before unannounced strikes, have raised concerns about potential insider activity on prediction platforms.
The analysis by Bubblemaps found the trader achieved a 93 per cent win rate on large wagers related to Iran, significantly higher than typical trading performance. The bets included positions placed shortly before Israeli strikes in October 2024, US airstrikes in June 2025 and a joint US-Israeli attack in February.
Bubblemaps CEO Nick Vaiman said the activity showed “strong signaling of insider activity,” citing the timing, size and consistency of the trades, as well as connections between the accounts on-chain. The trader’s identity remains unknown, and there is no confirmation that the activity involved insider information.
The trades took place on Polymarket’s international platform, which operates outside US regulatory oversight. Although the Commodity Futures Trading Commission approved Polymarket to offer services to US users last year, its domestic platform is not fully operational. Experts say US users can still access offshore markets using virtual private networks.
The findings have renewed scrutiny of prediction markets, which allow users to bet on outcomes ranging from elections to geopolitical events. Todd Phillips, a finance professor at Georgia State University, said the performance metrics stand out. “Having win rates in the 80% to 90% range is just too good to be true,” he said, adding that the pattern suggests either unusual luck or access to non-public information.
Polymarket introduced updated rules this week aimed at addressing insider trading concerns. The company said it will prohibit trades based on confidential information, tips from individuals under confidentiality obligations, or participation by people in positions of authority who could influence outcomes. Chief legal officer Neal Kumar said the changes “make our expectations abundantly clear for every participant.”
The issue is not limited to a single platform. Kalshi, a regulated US-based prediction market, also announced additional safeguards, including screening for participants such as athletes and politicians. Lawmakers have proposed legislation to prevent federal officials from using non-public information in prediction markets, while the CFTC has reiterated that insider trading remains illegal and subject to enforcement.
Recent cases have added to the concern. Israeli authorities have indicted two individuals, including a military reservist, for allegedly using classified information to place bets on Polymarket during the Iran conflict.
