OpenAI forecasts 80% drop in ChatGPT Plus as cheaper tier takes over

April 30, 2026 OpenAI is projecting an 80 per cent decline in its $20-per-month ChatGPT Plus subscriber base, falling from 44 million users in 2025 to about 9 million in 2026, as it shifts focus to a lower-cost, ad-supported offering. The strategy hinges on rapidly scaling its new “ChatGPT Go” tier, which the company expects to grow from 3 million to 112 million subscribers over the same period.

The projections, first reported by The Information, signal a major change in how OpenAI plans to monetise consumer AI. While premium subscriptions shrink, the company expects cheaper plans, priced at around $8 per month in the U.S. and about $5 in other markets, to drive overall user growth. Higher-priced Pro subscriptions are forecast to double, but will still account for less than 1 per cent of total users.

The scale of the planned shift is notable. Growing ChatGPT Go to 112 million users would represent a roughly 36-fold increase in a single year, one of the most aggressive subscriber expansion targets seen in the software industry. At the same time, the projected decline in Plus users suggests demand may be moving toward lower-cost options, even as premium tiers remain available.

The economics of that shift are less clear. Lower subscription pricing means significantly reduced revenue per user, and even at scale, the new tier may not fully offset declines from higher-priced plans. The company is expected to rely in part on advertising and regional pricing differences to close the gap, though those contributions have not been detailed.

The projections also come amid signs of pressure on growth. Recent reporting from The Wall Street Journal indicated that OpenAI has missed some revenue and new user targets, raising questions about how quickly it can convert free users into paying customers at scale. Expanding to more than 100 million new subscribers would also increase operating costs, particularly given the high compute demands of running AI models.



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Jim Love

Jim is an author and podcast host with over 40 years in technology.

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